Media for social change

In a ruling that on face-falue look like a setback for Southern Sudan, the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague gave control of the Heglig and Bamboo oilfields to the North.

Both the Sudanese government and SPLM in the south pledged to abide by the ruling of the Abyei Arbitration Tribunal in The Hague.

This is encouraging for stability in the region.

But is this really bad news for the South? Heglig and Bamboo produce low-quality crude. Production is dropping off quickly, to 53,000 barrels a day. That could reduce revenues to less than $300m a year by 2011 - hardly enough to ignite a war.

The ruling also benefits the Ngok-Dinka people. When the South votes in the 2011 referendum, Abyei state will exercise a special dispensation (which is nothing to do with the ruling at The Hague) letting it choose whether to stay in a federal Sudan or to secede with the south. With its new boudary, the state is now smaller making the Ngok-Dinka the dominant tribe in it - and they will probably vote for independence with the South.

Under the courts ruling, the Misseriya, an Arab nomadic tribe, may now have to pay grazing fees to the Dinka. The Misseriya protested after the ruling. Allies of Khartoum, they feel they have been betrayed for a few dry oil wells.